Man hört immer wieder von den Kursanstiegen und -verlusten des Bitcoins (BTC). Mal geht es rasant bergauf, dann wieder bergab. Wie aber entsteht der Preis für Bitcoins?

Kritiker sehen im unbeständigen Preis des Bitcoins den Hauptgrund dafür, warum man davon besser die Finger lassen und lieber in eine solide Assetklasse wie Aktien-ETFs investieren sollte. Doch diese Haltung ist recht kurzsichtig.

Auf dem Aktienmarkt gibt es zwar auch Hochs und Tiefs – Bullen- und Bärenmärkte, wie man sie ebenfalls beim Bitcoin findet –, aber Preisschwankungen im zweistelligen Prozentbereich binnen weniger Stunden sind hier zugegebenermaßen eher die Ausnahme.

Es stellt sich daher natürlich die Frage, wie es zu diesen extremen Schwankungen kommt.

Welche Faktoren bestimmen den Bitcoin-Preis?

Grundsätzlich gilt beim Bitcoin das Gleiche wie bei allen Kryptowährungen: Der Preis bestimmt sich durch Angebot und Nachfrage. Das ist der wesentliche Unterschied zu Fiat-Währungen wie Dollar oder Euro, bei denen die Zentralbank darüber entscheidet, was sie wert sind.

Der Kurs hängt bei Kryptowährungen wie dem Bitcoin somit allein davon ab, was sie den Käufern wert sind. So entsteht letztlich der Preis für Bitcoins.

Bereits seit den Anfängen des Bitcoins ist klar, dass es nur eine limitierte Menge davon geben wird – nämlich 21 Millionen BTC. Diese werden bis zum Jahr 2140 vollständig geschürft sein. Einige Bitcoins sind bereits unwiderruflich vernichtet, weil einige Nutzer die Passwörter für ihre ►Wallets und damit den Zugriff auf die BTC verloren haben.

In einer solchen Wallet, quasi einem digitalen Portemonnaie, bewahrt man seine Kryptowährungen wie Bitcoin oder Ethereum sicher auf. Dafür gibt es ein Passwort, das den alleinigen Zugang zur Wallet darstellt. Verliert man seine Zugangsdaten, gibt es keine Möglichkeit mehr, an seine Wallet und damit an die Coins zu kommen. Sämtliche darauf befindlichen Bitcoin sind dann verloren.

Auch solche Verluste haben einen Einfluss auf den Preis von Bitcoin. Denn bleibt die Nachfrage hoch, steigt der Wert der digitalen Währung BTC Jahr für Jahr immer weiter.

Wie hoch war der erste Preis für Bitcoins?

2011 gab es zum ersten Mal einen Kurs bzw. Preis für einen Bitcoin. Ab diesem Zeitpunkt es war den Menschen möglich, Bitcoin zu kaufen und in der Wallet zu verwahren. Bis dahin konnte man ihn nur minen, also selbst durch Rechenleistung herstellen.

Der erste Preis für Bitcoin belief sich damals auf 0,08 Cent. Er wurde von der New Liberty Standard auf Grundlage der Produktionskosten für das Schürfen kalkuliert. Damals hätten Sie für einen Dollar 1.310 Bitcoins erhalten.

Wenn Sie zu der Zeit für 12 Dollar Bitcoins gekauft hätten, hätten Sie daraus bis Ende 2020 eine Million Dollar mit Bitcoin gemacht. Im letzten Jahrzehnt gab es einen Wertanstieg von 80.000 Prozent. Damit war der Bitcoin die Investition des letzten Jahrzehnts.

http://bitcoineinfach.de/bitcoin-verstehen/bitcoin-rechner-so-viel-waere-ihre-bitcoin-investition-heute-wert/
(Ärgern erlaubt, Rechner in englischer Sprache)

Man erwartet zwar, dass der Preisanstieg in diesem Jahrzehnt nicht mehr ganz so drastisch sein wird, Experten halten eine Steigerung des Werts um einige Tausend Prozent aber durchaus für realistisch und empfehlen den Coin daher auch für dieses Jahrzehnt als absolutes Top-Investment.

Auch interessant: ►Wann sollte man Bitcoins kaufen?

Wie konnte der Preis für Bitcoins zuletzt so stark ansteigen?

Sie kennen das von den Aktienmärkten: Wer Aktien kauft, sollte sich immer über das aktuelle Geschehen in der Wirtschaft und in der Politik informieren. So hat es sich etwa kürzlich positiv auf die Aktienkurse ausgewirkt, dass Joe Biden als nächster amerikanischer Präsident bestätigt wurde, verspricht das doch eine gewisse politische Stabilität.

Der Bitcoin-Kurs wurde in den letzten Monaten zum einen ganz stark durch die Corona-Krise beeinflusst. Die Menschen haben Angst um ihre Ersparnisse und fürchten eine Inflation, die durch die großzügige Verteilung von Hilfspaketen durch die Regierung ausgelöst werden könnte.

Also sichern sie ihr Geld in verschiedenen Anlagen – etwa in Gold oder auch in Kryptowährungen. Diese und allen voran der Bitcoin haben in den letzten Monaten auch dadurch einen großen Anstieg im Wert erhalten, dass große institutionelle Investoren einen Teil ihres Kapitals in Bitcoin investiert haben.

Außerdem ermöglicht PayPal seit kurzem die Bezahlung und auch den Erwerb von Bitcoins. Diese Meldung trug ebenfalls zu einer Preissteigerung bei und war für den Bitcoin wie ein Ritterschlag. Es ist der Beweis dafür, dass Bitcoin endgültig aus der Schmuddelecke des Darknets herausgekommen und als alternatives Geld zum Euro im Mainstream angekommen ist.

Die Folge: Jeder will Bitcoin kaufen. Es gibt aktuell eine höhere Nachfrage nach Bitcoins als Coins gemint werden. Das bedeutet, dass viele der Kryptos, die derzeit gehandelt werden, aus Altbeständen stammen.

Lesen Sie dazu auch: ►Wie finde ich den besten Bitcoin-Preis?

Warum gibt es keinen einheitlichen Preis für Bitcoins?

Bitcoins kann man auf verschiedenen Börsen und Handelsplätzen kaufen und dann in seiner Wallet verwahren.

Da der Bitcoin im Gegensatz zum Euro oder Dollar nicht zentral reguliert ist, gibt es leichte Preisschwankungen von Handelsplatz zu Handelsplatz. Es entsteht jeweils ein unterschiedlicher Preis für Bitcoins. Die Käufer von Bitcoin kaufen in der Regel kleinere Mengen als etwa Menschen, die Gold kaufen.

Dadurch, dass das Trading-Volumen von Kryptowährungen geringer ist als beispielsweise das Handelsvolumen von Gold, kommt es zu erheblichen Schwankungen beim Kurs. Innerhalb kürzester Zeit kann es hier rauf und runter gehen wie auf einer Achterbahn.

Eine wichtige Rolle beim Kurs von Bitcoin spielen auch die sogenannten „Bitcoin Whales“. Die Whales besitzen große Mengen an Kryptos, die sie bewegen. Entscheiden sie sich für einen Verkauf, fällt der Kurs sofort.

Kann der Preis von Bitcoin auch auf null Euro fallen?

FUD ist der Krypto-Killer Nummer Eins und hat in der Vergangenheit immer wieder für drastische Kursrückgänge gesorgt. FUD steht für „Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt“ (Angst, Unsicherheit und Zweifel).

Bekommen die Anleger bei einem fallenden Kurs Angst um ihr Geld, machen sie sich Sorgen über ungewisse Entwicklungen und zweifeln sie am Potenzial der Kryptowährungen, ziehen sie ihr Kapital ab und kaufen evtl. eher wieder in Gold.

Auch politischer Druck oder das Versagen der Technologie könnten dazu führen, dass der Preis der beliebtesten Kryptowährung eines Tages auf null Euro fällt und die Wallet zwar noch Bitcoin enthält, diese aber nichts mehr wert sind.

Für Investoren bleiben Preisschwankungen bei den Kryptos Teil des Tagesgeschäfts, solange die Mehrheit der Weltbevölkerung die digitalen Währungen nicht akzeptiert.

Andererseits kann der Preis auch in die andere Richtung ausschlagen. In der Szene sprechen Optimisten gerne von „To the moon“ als langfristige Prognose für den Preis des Bitcoin. Manch einer rechnet sogar mit einem Preis von einer Million in den nächsten Jahren. Welcher Preis für Bitcoins wirklich einmal entsteht, kann aber niemand sicher vorhersagen.

Wie funktionieren Bitcoin-Netzwerke?

Jede abgeschlossene Transaktion wird der Bitcoin-Blockchain verschlüsselt angehängt und ist dann nicht mehr veränderbar. Eine Blockchain ist eine kontinuierlich erweiterbare Liste von Blöcken, nämlich Datensätzen.

Unzählige Miner sind derzeit weltweit aktiv und lösen komplexe Rechenaufgaben, um die Blockchain zu erweitern und die Block-Belohnung zu erhalten. Für jeden Block gibt es eine gewisse Anzahl Bitcoin als Belohnung für die Arbeit an der Blockchain.

Seit dem letzten Halving, also der Halbierung der ausgeschütteten Anzahl an Bitcoin, beträgt die Belohnung für einen geminten Block 6,25 Bitcoins. Derzeit werden der Blockchain alle zehn Minuten neue Blöcke angehängt, deren Richtigkeit vorher vom gesamten Netzwerk geprüft wurde.

Bei einem Halving halbiert sich jeweils die Menge an Bitcoins, die ein Miner für das Anhängen eines Blocks an die Blockchain erhält. So soll eine zu große Inflation der Kryptowährungen wie BTC verhindert werden.

Sie wollen nun auch einsteigen? Dann ist das interessant für Sie: ►Bitcoins kaufen – Das müssen Anfänger wissen

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